I got kinda bored these days and decided to continue looking into hidden stashes. This time I got item values from the last hidden stash in the Northlands (near the final 2 charr groups). Apparently this final stash has a different value range than the one near the entrance to the Northlands, as it drops 6g items (as Ishalldefend pointed out in a post) whereas the other one does not (but it probably needs more data points to rule out 6g drops). Anyway, here are the data from 195 drops (including coins):
And here are new data from 305 drops coming from the first stash entering the Northlands (some older data can be found on the 5th post of this thread). These new data confirm that indeed this stash is different (lower level) from the final stash near the closed gate, as it cannot drop 6g-value items. When I opened the stashes, I also recorded what level foes were near the stash (either 5-level oakhearts or lvl 7-8 charr), to see if there is a difference in the distribution of drops (there is this theory that the level of a chest depends on nearby foe groups when they spawn). In the graph, the red bars represent stashes near low-level foes, the green bars stashes near high-level foes, and blue bars are the total (pooled) numbers. IMO there doesn't seem to be a difference in the drop value distribution (except maybe in the coin drops?) acccording to the nearest foe level. Perhaps redfireball has more data on this particular topic? Anyway, if you are after highest level stash drops (probably that is 6g in value), I recommend you open the final stash in the Northlands and don't bother with the first one
And finally, here are some data from 318 items dropped from the stash that spawns in the area North-West from the bosses, near the group of charr that patrols some sort of effigy. I wanted to see if this one could also drop 6g items, but apparently it follows the same distribution of drops as the first stash. So, according to all the data I have so far, ONLY the final stash in the Northlands can drop 6g items!
I had a quick look, all items dropped from 1st and second (mid) stash, are in the pool of the 3rd (final) stash. However, I found 2 items that drop in the final stash that are not in the drop pool of the other two. One is the ball hammer skin, which seems to be a somewhat common drop from the last stash (and thus should appear from the others by chance), and the other is the butterfly sword skin which is a rarer drop (swords in general are rarer I think). So far, these are the only two I have that seem to only drop from the last stash, but I need to gather more data from the first 2 stashes to be more confident.
Post by redfireball on Apr 20, 2021 23:21:14 GMT -8
Rather long absence of mine - but your post got me Nice work! The fact that nearby foes affect the level/value of drops has been disproven on other post sear chests - it is nice to see the same on those stashes! Concerning difference in the first and last stash drops: I absolutely agree from your data, that they indeed are different, whilst a 6g value not dropping wouldn't be the deciding factor for me on "just" ~300 chests, but the overall probability distribution would. Let me try make my point: assuming that the first stash WOULD drop 6g items at a 1% chance - you'd have a 5% chance not to get a single one in 300 chests, were it just a 0.5% chance it'd be 22% already and on a 0.1% chance a whopping 74%. From the data you'd assume that if a 6g value could drop it'd be a chance <0.3%, if proposing that the next drop could be the 6g one. So the overall probability distribution much more clearly indicates a difference. As an easy marker you could view the average value of a dropped item. Since every drop would contribute to that your statistical reliability of that value is much higher. And those differ quite much between the two stashes. Take for example the lvl 20 post sear chests. They have a chance to drop 54g items. The rate is (iirc) in the 1 among a couple thousands. If you'd want to make sure to get one at a 99% you'd have to run 13k chests. Running 2000chests you'd get just a 50% chance. And even rarer: 58g items from lvl 22 (locked chest in shing jea/asc/ist) - but let's not get started on those Great topic!